Why Democrats fell short in 2020, and how they can rebuild
Democrats across the country were disappointed on Election Night 2020. Despite Joe Biden eventually being declared the winner after flipping Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona from Donald Trump, downballot Democrats took many unexpected losses, with multiple Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives losing their seats and high-profile US Senate candidates falling short by large margins. Although Joe Biden has become the first candidate to beat an incumbent President since 1992, the fact that his victory was so small despite a deadly pandemic that’s killed over 300,000 Americans, a historically unpopular President, and an extraordinary fundraising advantage should be a massive warning to Democrats across the country.
While Biden improved upon Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin enough in order to take the Presidency, he also lost significant ground amongst key constituencies, most notably Hispanic and Latino voters. His underperformance amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida and Tejanos in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley made it impossible for him to carry either state. Biden became the first Democrat since James Cox in 1920 to lose Zapata County, Texas, which is over 95% Hispanic. But this phenomena was not reserved only to Texas or Florida, Biden underperformed amongst Hispanic voters across the country, making many pundits wonder how did this happen?
Simply put: neglect. The Biden campaign took Hispanic voters for granted, and it backfired tremendously. Although activists and certain analysts alike raised the alarm early that Biden had a problem with Hispanic voters, those concerns appear to have been unheeded. The result was Biden losing counties that Hillary Clinton carried by over 30% and where Republicans historically haven’t even contested local races. However, it would be unfair to blame Biden alone for Democrats hemorrhaging Hispanic support. These losses stem much more from institutional decisions by the Democratic Party as a whole rather than a single candidate or campaign. They are the culmination of years and years of a refusal to invest critical resources into certain communities, and a political strategy mindset that makes voters feel that the Party only cares about them in election years. They are also not unique to Hispanic voters; this same type of divestment and abandonment is responsible for Democrats losing ground across the country, especially in rural areas. If Democrats want to win back Hispanic voters and rural America, they must start making bold investments everywhere.
For years, pundits and Party officials have adopted incredibly short-sighted approaches to resource allocation. Leading discourse dictates that any place that cannot give Democrats a win right away shouldn’t receive investment. This has tremendous implications for both the Democratic Party and local communities. First, it makes the disturbing implication that certain communities are more worthy of good governance than others simply based off how they vote. Instead of acknowledging that all communities in our country are equally deserving of proper representation, we instead cast Red areas aside and deny them even the opportunity to have representatives who care. Republicans are un-apologetically guilty of this too: look at any Republican advertisement that tries to advertise rural (White) Americans as “real Americans,” while simultaneously disparaging those who live in minority-majority cities.
Secondly, this mindset comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of how politics and campaigning work. Elections do not occur in a vacuum, a good campaign can only do so much in a place with no pre-existing infrastructure. Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign is a perfect example of this. Despite (then) record-breaking fundraising numbers, an accomplished and charismatic candidate, and a favorable national environment, O’Rourke still fell short of becoming the first Democratic Senator from Texas since 1992. His campaign, the first of its kind in Texas, was tasked with both trying to win an election while simultaneously having to build Democratic infrastructure.
Campaigns like O’Rourke’s having to build infrastructure, rather than utilizing it, should be seen as an indictment of Democratic Party leadership. Had the Texas Democratic Party been given adequate support and resources back at the turn of the decade, Beto O’Rourke very well may be a Senator today.
Going forwards, however, Texas is poised to continue to receive massive investments on both the Federal and statewide levels. The same cannot be said for vast parts of the country. South Dakota’s Democratic Party announced the closure of its last two statewide offices in 2019 in the face of serious financial troubles. That this was even a possibility is a complete failure of the Democratic Party. How do you allow an entire State Party to become so starved of resources that they are unable to even pay rent? Especially when they’d almost elected a Democratic Governor a year prior? Indeed, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Billie Sutton was undeniably also a victim of lack of Democratic infrastructure, having lost only by 3% in what was originally seen as a long-shot race. That’s what divestment does to the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates; it prevents them from capitalizing on unforeseen opportunities.
So what are the solutions to this problem? What can the Democratic Party do in order to begin competing everywhere again? Unfortunately there is no quick fix for undoing the damage of years and years of neglect, but Democrats will see some progress right out the gate should they take the necessary steps.
First and foremost, invest everywhere. Yes, that means both investing in Chicago, IL and Cheyenne, WY. From Scott County, Tennessee, which gave Donald Trump 88% of the vote in 2020, to the Bronx in New York, which gave Joe Biden over 82% of the vote. The Democratic Party needs to be proactive, not reactive, in its approach, meaning it cannot afford to let any place go unchallenged or unsupported. Investment means giving both time and money to local Democratic groups, or creating them should they not exist. Every county in the country should have a functioning Democratic Party structure. That means leadership, a headquarters, and candidates contesting every elected office.
But is the money there? Yes! The Democratic Party could pay $2000 monthly rent for every single one of America’s 3143 counties over the course of a year and still not even spend what Amy McGrath raised in 2020. It would take 22 years for the cost to reach the amount that Joe Biden raised. The amount of money that is being raised by the Democratic Party and its candidates is unheard of, and they could undoubtedly channel this fundraising success into investing in their state and local-level leadership.
But are there people willing to do this work? Yes! In my work as an organizer and operative in red, rural America, I have met countless gifted and hardworking people dedicated to building a better future for their communities. I have also seen how limited they are by a lack of resources, often dealing with local Democratic Parties that either barely function or don’t function at all. Empowering local activists across the country with the resources they need to effectively do their jobs would have a tremendous long-term impact upon their results.
Is this really worth it? Why should we even bother with this? The greatest obstacle to Democrats overcoming the rightwards-shift of large parts of the country are mindsets like these. Too often Democrats see conservative areas as beneath them and the Democratic Party, full of uneducated people voting against their own self-interests. I couldn’t have a greater disdain for such thinking. Everybody in this country deserves an opportunity. Everybody in this country deserves to be supported and to have a basic quality of life. The decisions made by our Representatives in government can be the difference between life-or-death, as we’ve sadly come to see with the COVID-19 pandemic. When you write off any community as unworthy of our support and investment, you are essentially abandoning them to die. People are more than just numbers in a spreadsheet or colors on a precinct map, they are living and breathing beings who laugh, love, and cry. To reduce them to anything less is a failure of conscience. If you’re not willing to fight for everyone, you best get out of the way and let in someone who will.